Is immigration affecting unemployment?

One of the questions dominating media coverage at the moment is whether migration, both EU and non-EU, is affecting unemployment in the UK. The new year has seen some reports on this topic published by prominent research bodies trying to understand this point.

There are three core articles that have been published recently and these are:

It should also be noted that there has also been research published by MigrationWatch, the notably anti-immigration body. This report only seeks to link the rise in unemployment since 2004 with migration figures and makes no reference to the global financial crisis which has decimated employment levels worldwide. Matt Cavanagh of the Institute for Public Policy and Research has more detail on why MigrationWatch can be discounted in his article, The right tries to blame youth unemployment on immigration - again.

The MAC and NIESR reports use different data for their analysis. The MAC use the Labour Force Survey which breaks migrants in to 11 areas, and may undercount some groups. The NIESR report uses National Insurance registration data which provides much greater detail on numbers and locations.

The question still remains, however. Is immigration affecting unemployment in the UK?

The case for: Migrants take British jobs

The MAC report and the Migration Observatory reports both suggest that there is a ‘tentative negative association between working-age migrants and native employment when the economy is below full capacity’, such as when it is in a recession.

The MAC report suggests that ‘100 additional non-EU migrants may cautiously be estimated to be associated with a reduction in employment of 23 native workers. But those migrants who have been in the UK for over five years are not associated with displacement of UK born workers.’ This means that the report says only temporary migrants are causing the problem - those migrants who go on to stay in the UK permanently do not ‘take British peoples’ jobs’.

The MAC estimate that this would mean non-EU migrants lead to 160,000 British born workers being unemployed out of 2.1millions - or 1 in 13. The report also notes that this only applies in a recession as in a period of economic growth unemployment will be reduced anyway.

Other important findings of the reports were that immigrants have not led to an increase in violent crime, indeed the increase of foreign skilled workers has led to a reduction in burglary and other property crime.

Migrants have also not affected average wages, although they have slightly lowered the lowest wages and raised the highest. This finding is backed up by the Migration Observatory.

The case against: Migrants don’t take British jobs

The NIESR report found that there was no link between immigration and unemployment benefit claims. Using the slightly more reliable data they can be fairly clear on this.

The report states, in fact, that in relation to migrants there is a “relative balance between what they cost and what they contribute [which] is firmly weighted towards a significant positive net contribution, both to the economy, and to public finances.” To put this more simply, immigrants as a group bring and generate more money than they cost.

What does this mean?

The result of all of this coverage and these various reports sounds like a confusing picture. Once you remove MigrationWatch from the equation, however, things become a little clearer.

Because the MAC and Migration Observatory make it clear that their findings amount to a ‘tentative ... association’ they do not necessarily disagree with the NIESR report.

One of the authors of the NIESR report, Jonathon Portes, actually praises the MAC for taking pains to make this clear in their report. He highlights that the MAC themselves take pains to detail that their data is not statistically robust and maybe subject to bias.

What we are left with is very little in the way of significant findings. Unemployment is increasing, but this is a result of the broader economic picture and the result of many other factors.

Immigrants are not clearly stealing British born peoples’ jobs and any coverage suggesting otherwise is irresponsible.


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